Genea Melbourne City Medical Director A/Prof Alex Polyakov from the University of Melbourne has raised serious concerns about genetic tests being marketed to prospective parents that claim to predict which IVF embryo will develop into the tallest, smartest or healthiest child. A/Prof Polyakov led research examining whether this polygenic risk score technology is ready for clinical use, evaluating it using the same framework applied to any medical screening test. His team's findings reveal that these predictions are extremely uncertain, with mathematical modelling showing only vanishingly small benefits, perhaps a few IQ points and one to three centimetres in height. The research highlights a fundamental flaw: these scores are derived from studying people currently in their 50s and 60s who grew up in vastly different environments without smartphones, current levels of processed foods and microplastic exposure, making it impossible to assume genetic patterns from past populations will accurately predict outcomes in today's radically transformed environment.
A/Prof Polyakov emphasises that whilst Australian companies don't offer these tests, multiple US firms, including Nucleus Genomics with its controversial "Have your best baby" campaign, are screening embryos for up to 2,000 traits including eye colour, IQ and late-onset diseases. His research reveals several critical issues: the technology only examines genetic factors whilst ignoring equally important environmental influences like nutrition and education; researchers cannot assess benefits for late-onset diseases since outcomes won't be known for decades; and the process of pleiotropy means selecting for one desirable trait might inadvertently increase risks for conditions like bipolar disorder. Most troublingly for fertility patients, A/Prof Polyakov points out a cruel irony, couples undergoing IVF solely for genetic testing rather than fertility issues actually reduce their chances of having a healthy baby due to IVF-associated risks including high blood pressure and preterm delivery, essentially trading proven risks for unproven benefits.
A/Prof Alex Polyakov
Associate Professor Alex Polyakov is an Obstetrician, Gynaecologist and Fertility specialist practicing in East Melbourne. A/Prof Polyakov is unique among fertility specialists by offering a holistic approach that encompasses surgical, fertility, and obstetric care. This means Alex is highly trained to perform surgical interventions for gynaecological conditions such as fibroids, endometriosis, and intrauterine polyps/adhesions.
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